Showing posts with label Apple. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Apple. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

European and North American Markets Review – September 1st 2010

Bulls Ruled Europe and North America

Better-than-expected economic data from China and US triggered hefty gains in Europe and North America on Wednesday. DAX index jumped 158.68 points to end at 6,083.90 or up 2.68%, while FTSE 100 rallied towards 5,366.41 or gained 2.70%. North American markets also rallied, with the Dow ended at 10,269.47 after leaping 254.75 points throughout the day, Nasdaq Composite gained 2.97% to settle at 2,176.84, while S&P 500 landed at 1,080.29 after a 2.95% rise.

Data, Data, Data …

After China PMI triggered a mood swing towards positive in Asia, the effect still lingered throughout midday Europe (for China data, read previous post). Then, US data were out, and despite the ADP report went in below the expectations, ISM data posted a better-than-expected reading and thus further powered the rally among European and North American s
hares.

ADP report showed that 10,000 jobs were cut in August, against a gain of 37,000 jobs in the previous month. The market had expected an addition of 20,000 jobs into the private sector in August. T
he missed result was unable to stop the rally that already brought over 100 points of gains on Dow Jones index.

The boost came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for the manufacturing sector that beat the expectation of a fall towards 53.00. Instead of falling, the index rose from 55.5 in July to 56.3 in August, indicating that manufacturing activity remained robust throughout August.

Final piece of the economic data on Wednesday was construction spending that declined 1% to $805.2 billion. June’s figure was revised down to -0.8% against prior estimate of +0.1%.

Earlier, European data showed unimpressive results. German PMI for manufacturing sector was stagnant at 58.2 in August, the same as July’s level. UK’s PMI for manufacturing unexpectedly fell from 56.9 to 54.3, below the expected rise to 57.0. Meanwhile, retail sales fell 0.3% (m/m) in Germany while on the year-on-year basis sales grew 0.8% after a 4.7% jump in prior month.

More data to come on Thursday, as US jobless claims and pending home sales will grab the market’s attention aside from other data coming from Europe. Claims were expected to rise again to 478,000 after it dropped towards 473,000. Pending home sales were e
xpected to fall 1.5% in July, at a better pace than June’s -2.6%.

Daimler AG gained significantly to €40.46 or 5.46% higher than Tuesday’s close after UBS raised its rating from SELL to NEUTRAL.

BMW bea
t Toyota’s Lexus at the American market for luxury cars in August as the sales climbed to 19,540. 1 Series and 7 Series had their sales up by 53% and 42%, respectively. Lexus however, declined 15% to 19,465. Daimler’s Mercedes sales were up 10% to 18,826 units, as the E-Class contributed a month-on-month increase of 26% in August while since the start of the year its sales were up 71%. BMW gained 2.99% at €42.91 while Volkswagen advanced 2.24% to €73.36.

Among the three, Lexus was on top with 145,490 units (+11%), Mercedes in the second place with 139,867 units (+18%), and BMW next at 139,236 units (+7.8%). Further down, Ford Motor Co. had 6,428 units of Lincoln models sold (+9.4%), Volkswagen’s Audi with 9,182
units (+14%) along with its Porsche’s sales of 2,032 units (+33%). Honda’s Acura and Nissan’s Infiniti sales were a 11,534 units (+20%) and 9,428 units (+22%), respectively.

BP will resume the work of plugging of its well in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday which had been held by rough seas since August 30th. BP’s shares hovered at 388.75 pence at the end of the session.

Shares with significant gains in Europe were Daimler at the top (+5.46%), Barclays Plc. (+4.33%) and Deutsche Boerse (+3.69%).

Eyes on Apple

Apple demonstrated its new iPods, iTunes and Apple TV. It also introduced iTunes software with more social-networking features that enable users to see their friends’ downloading activities. Apple TV’s set-top box was revamped, video rentals fees were lowered, and Netflix’s content was made available for streaming. Apple unveiled iOS 4.1 at the event, which would be available next week for iPhone and iPod touch via free download. The OS will include GameCenter for multiplayer gaming. Subsequent version, iOS 4.2 will be launched later in November and it would be for iPad, with features like wireless printing, streaming videos and photos. The new iPod Nano will be 46% smaller, 42% lighter, with 24 hour audio playback battery life. The new iTunes 10 will include Ping, as music social network. Apple’s CEO Steve Jobs also said that Disney’s ABC and News Corp’s Fox are available on Apple TV. The new Apple TV will cost $99, has no storage management, and can stream content from computer. It will be available in four weeks time. Apple was placed with an OUTPERFORM rating at MP Securities with price target at $290. Apple gained nearly 3% and ended the day at $250.33.

Amazon.co
m led the North American gainers on Wednesday as it leaped to $132.49 - over 6% gains – as the company was reportedly approaching media companies to start an online video-subscription service to compete with Netflix. One of them was Time Warner Inc.

From Citigroup
, the bank will lower the balance requirements of its basic account to reach more customers. The Citigold customers can now be free from monthly fees if the balance requirements are met, which was set at $50,000. Citigroup was up 3.73% at $3.85.

Other ratings revisions were Wal-Mart which was downgraded to SELL from BUY at Crowell Weeden, while Siemens AG downgraded to HOLD from BUY by Deutsche Bank. Wal-Mart ended up 2.11% at $51.20 and Siemens ended at €73.89 or up 2.94%.

Other top gainers were Bank of America with 6.08% jump to $13.21 and Halliburton Co. at $29.73 or up 5.39%.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

North American Markets Review – August 25th 2010

Dow Snapped Losing Streak

Bulls fought back after a string of losses including early losses on Wednesday drowned the Dow by 100 points. At the end of the day however, the index was closed at 10,060.06 or up by 19.61 points. The S&P 500 index ended at a 0.33% gains as it settled at 1,055.33. Nasdaq Composite was also turned positive as it ended at 2,141.54 or up 0.8%. During the early hours, all three were downed by yet another poor housing data. In addition, the durable goods orders for July were also reported increasing less than expected.

July’s sales of new homes plunged 12.4% to 276,000 against 315,000 in June. Consensus was expecting a figure of 339,000. The fingers were pointing at the expiration of government’s tax incentives in addition to slow recovery in the labor markets, which hindered purchasing power.
Meanwhile, US durable goods orders grew slower than expected at 0.3% rate in July, a miss from the consensus number of 2.7% increase. Stripping out the transportation items, the orders were actually falling 3.8% in July. June’s orders were revised from a 1.2% decline to a 0.1% rise.

Both data added to a pool of poor figures and sent the sentiment falling, sending waves of pessimism over the health of the US economy. The impact of the figures also hit the European markets which still struggling with the post-sovereign debt crisis. Only Germany stood out with solid data recently, including the latest IFO index.

IFO index climbed higher to 106.7 in August, beating the forecast of a slip to 106.0 from July’s 106.2. The current conditions index also rose, up from 106.8 in July to 108.2, also beating the consensus of 107.9. Expectations index fell however, to 105.2 from 105.5. Yet, this figure was slightly better than the expected fall to 104.9. Coupled with recent Germany’s GDP estimate for 2Q10, the data p ainted a bright picture of the Europe’s largest economy. Full-year GDP has been revised up as a result, to 3% from 2% by the Bundesbank.

Apple and Disney are in a negotiation over a deal to offer TV show rentals. The price was said to be at 99c for TV episodes through iTunes. Speculation was also sparked with Apple’s possible new product Mac iTV, an all-in-one TV with 26” touchscreen display, also functioning as a video management console. Apple also kept at BUY
with the fair value of $335 at Janney Montgomery Scott. Mac’s sales which beat expectations in July were one of the reasons behind the updated rating. Sales of iPad for the FY 2010 (ended September) are expected to reach 7.9 mil
lion, up from prior estimate of 7.7 million units. For FY 2011, sales projection was also revised from 17.9 million to 19.4 million. The new iPhone was also expected to sell for 37.2 million units, up from previous estimate of 37 million units. Next FY the iPhone sales are expected to reach 44.8 million, also higher than the prior expectations of 44.5 million units. JMS also saw EPS to be at $14.55 per share for FY 2010, up from previous estimate of $14.49 per share. For FY 2011, EPS estimate was revised up from $16.76 per share to $17.04 per share. Apple settled the day up 1.23% at $242.89, but Disney fell 0.09%.

Another rating update was for Hewlett-Packard as it got rated at NEUTRAL by Wedbush. HP ended down at $38.24.

Amazon’s Kindle has become a top rival for iPad as sales boomed among Amazon’s customers. The new Kindles were to be shipped starting from this Wednesday, two days sooner than earlier expected. Amazon went up 1.86% and settled at $126.85.

AT&T has forged an alliance with Dell for the launch of Aero. The price tag is at $100. Dell also sells its Streak via AT&T at the price of $300 (with a contract) or $550 (with no contract). Dell was up 1.73% while AT&T was up 0.64%.

Starbucks led on the top with 2.37% gains, followed by AMD with 2.34% gains, and Home Depot which settled at $28.33 or 1.98% higher. Limping at the bottom were Adobe Systems with 1.61% losses, Yahoo with a decline of 1.04% and Citigroup which fell 0.81%.

Looking ahead, the next piece of the US economic puzzle will be the jobless claims which will be released this Thursday. Last week, the market was shocked by the figure as it reached 500k mark. The upcoming data has been expected to be around 490k to 495k. Another shock could undo Wednesday’s gains and put a renewed pressure on the stocks.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

North America Review – US Stocks Still In the Red

US stocks still in the red for three days in a row as investors continued to worry about the economic outlook, especially after the jobless claims data showed no improvements in recent week. Cisco’s results, despite good, had its sales forecast fell below expectations, adding gloomy outlook on tech shares.

US jobless claims rose 2,000 during the week ended August 7, bringing the total claims to 484,000, way beyond the consensus of 469,000. It was the highest in nearly the last six months. The results reminded that the state of US labor market remains fragile and this does not bode well for spending which relies on employment.

At Apple, pressures from Japanese government pushed the company to replace older models of iPod Nano which are having battery problems. Elsewhere, Bernstein suggested that Apple’s cash balance of $46 billion is excessive. One solution suggested is distribution of dividend to increase potential ownership of Apple’s shares which are rated Outperform with target at $325.

The Cisco Story
Although it delivered a 79% rise in profit, Cisco plunged nearly 10% to end the Thursday session at $21.36. Net profit for 4Q was $1.9 billion or 33 cents a share compared to the net profit in prior year of $1.1 billion or 19 cents per share. Revenue was up 27% from $8.5 billion to $10.8 billion. Cisco’s results were below consensus net profit of $10.88 billion or 42 cents per share. For the current quarter, revenue is expected to grow 18%-20% (yoy) or $10.62 billion to $10.82 billion, also below consensus of $10.96 billion.

CEO John Chambers said that despite the reported quarter was very strong, global economy showed mixed signals. This implied that based on the market and the customers’ expectations the company is facing a possible global economy slowdown as the current situation is showing uncertainties.

As a result, analysts did some adjustments on Cisco’s rating:
  • Cisco downgraded by Oppenheimer from Outperform to Perform as Q1 sales outlook soft;
  • BMO Capital downgraded Cisco to Market Perform from Outperform;
  • Deutsche Bank maintained Buy rating on Cisco but with lowered target at $28 from $32;
  • Kaufman Bros. considered Cisco’s guidance as “conservative”;
  • RBC Capital lowered Cisco’s target to $28 from $33;
  • Citigroup saw weakness in Cisco as a buying opportunity;
  • Wunderlich kept Buy rating on Cisco but with lowered target from $33 to $28, saying that the stock is ‘inexpensive enough to be compelling’;
  • At Wedbush, Cisco target lowered to $27 from $29 but kept at Outperform;
  • Barclays downgraded Cisco to Equal Weight from Overweight;

Upgrades and downgrades
  • Wells Fargo initiated/continued a handful of ratings on tech stocks. At Market Perform are Microsoft, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Yahoo!; at Outperform are IBM, Google, and Apple.
  • In addition, Microsoft is also expected to Outperform by FBR Capital while Bernstein saw Apple at Outperform with target set at $325.
  • BMO Capital downgraded semiconductor sector and in effect, put both Intel and Texas Instruments at Market Perform, down from Outperform.
  • eBay upgraded from Hold to Buy at Citigroup;

On the positive side, Motorola surged 4.16%, eBay up 1.6%, while Pfizer rose 1.25%.

At the end of the day, Dow Jones index fell 58.88 points or 0.57% to close at 10,319.95, S&P 500 index shed 0.5% to end at 1,083.61 while Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.8% to 2,190.27.